Overbay Traded to Toronto!
NL Central Preview
2005 Season Preview
Eric Sacharski
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 2004 Record…105-57 (best in MLB) Beat LA 3-1 in NL Divisional Series; beat Houston 4-3 in NLCS; swept by Boston in World Series
The ’04 Cards were nearly unstoppable during the season, then they just ran out of gas (and outta pitching too) in the World Series against Boston. The 2005 version is minus a clutch performer (SS Edgar Rentaria) and a steady clubhouse guy (C Mike Matheny), but they did pick up another top starter by trading for Mark Mulder, making them still the team to beat in the NL Central.
PITCHING With Mulder at the top, the Cardinals can now slide Matt Morris (15 wins), Chris Carpenter (15 wins), Jason Marquis (15 wins) and Jeff Suppan ( 16 wins) down a notch in the rotation. With the exception of the Cubs, no one even comes close to matching this rotation in the Central. The bullpen is still probably the tops in the league with Julian Tavarez, Ray King and Mike Myers all setting-up closer Jason Isringhausen.
LINEUP The Cards offense will drop off at shortstop with David Eckstein replacing Rentaria, but that drop off might be negated by the better-hitting Mark Grudzielanek replacing Tony Womack at 2B. With Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and a full-season of Larry Walker the Cards will not have any trouble scoring runs in 2005.
PLAYER TO WATCH (PTW) C Yadier Molina – The young (only 51 MLB games) Molina is expected to replace Matheny behind the dish, and while Yadier may represent more potential at the plate, how he handles the pitching staff, his defense, and a full-season’s worth of wear-n- tear catching in the Bigs will be more important to the Cards this season.
Houston Astros 2004 Record…92-70 (13 games back) Beat Atlanta 3-2 in the NL Divisional Series; lost to St. Louis 4-3 in NLCS
The Astros nearly had a dream season in ’04, riding the trade deadline pickup of Carlos Beltran all the way into the seventh game of the NLCS. But now Beltran is gone, and the team full of veterans is all one year older then last season.
PITCHING The ageless Roger Clemens is back, who along with Roy Oswalt and a healthy Andy Pettitte could anchor a serious rotation with Pete Munro, Brandon Backe and Tim Redding competing for the No. 4 and 5 spots. A healthy Pettitte is the big if, although Backe was clutch down the stretch (4-1 in last 7 regular season, 1-0 in playoffs with 2.89 ERA). The Astros did bring in veteran John Franco to help lower the workload on closer Brad Lidge.
LINEUP Lance Berkman’s torn knee and Beltran’s walk in free agency weaken the Astros otherwise formidable lineup. If Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio start to show their age, the Astros could be in trouble. Young players like 3B Morgan Ensberg (only 10 HRs), Jason Lane (.only 232 MLB at bats) and rookie prospect Chris Burke will have to carry more of the load now, something they might be too young to do yet in their careers.
PTW P Andy Pettitte -- Will Andy’s shoulder allow him to pitch in a few games this season? If it does, he could finally give the Astros the one-two punch with Clemens they were expecting but didn’t get in ’04. If Pettitte can approach 200 innings, the Astros will benefit because in the six seasons he’s reached the 200 mark, he’s averaged 18 wins.
Chicago Cubs 2004 record…89-73 (16 games back)
The 2005 Cubs are hoping that their team improves by applying the old “addition by subtraction” cliché. They gave away Sammy Sosa to Baltimore just to get him out of town, but they also lost Moises Alou (to SF as free agent), meaning they will have to find a way to replace their combined 74 HRs and 186 RBIs in ’04.
PITCHING The good news for the Cubs is that their staff continues to be one of the best in the game. Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Greg Maddux and Carlos Zambrano give the Cubs one of the best (if not the best) 1 through 4 starting staffs in baseball. If Joe Borowski can reclaim the closer role, moving LaTroy Hawkins back to setup man along with Ryan Dempster, the bullpen should be good enough to hold leads going into the late innings.
LINEUP There’s no doubt the offense is weakened without Sosa and Alou, but with Jeromy Burnitz and Todd Hollandsworth playing in their place the Cubs should still be competitive. 3B Aramis Ramirez and 1B Derrek Lee are the boppers on the corners, but the middle infield of Nomar Garciaparra and Todd Walker is also capable of hitting 15 to 20 HRs in a season too, giving the Cubs plenty of firepower on offense.
PTW P Joe Borowski – Borowski came out of spring training last season with arm problems, and after appearing in 22 games with just nine saves, he shut it down for the year and had arm surgery. The Cubs bullpen was a mess after he left, and it’s still a mess today. If Borowski can regain the form that notched him 33 saves in ’03, it will solidify the Cubs bullpen and move LaTroy Hawkins back to his set-up role. If not, the Cubs will have problems holding leads in late innings.
Cincinnati Reds 2004 Record…76-86 (29 games back)
The Reds sat right in the middle of the pack in the NL Central for most of 2004, so the management staff in Cincinnati decided to makes some moves to try and move up the ladder in the standings. The Reds were busy during the free agency period, and therefore will have many new faces around in 2005.
PITCHING The Reds made a bunch of moves to acquire pitching for ’05, but depending on whom you ask, the moves may or may not look all that impressive. They resigned their top pitcher from ’04, Paul Wilson, then added lefty Eric Milton (via free agency) and Ramon Ortiz (in trade with Angels) to fill out the top three spots in the rotation. It’s after those three that the rest of the starting rotation becomes a bunch of questions marks. The good news for the Reds is, if they can get some quality out of their starters, their bullpen should be deep enough and strong enough to closeout games. The Reds acquired David Weathers, Ben Weber and Kent Merker to go along with closer Danny Graves and youngster Ryan Wagner to give the Reds a real nice bullpen.
LINEUP Who can remember the last time the Reds lineup didn’t have Barry Larkin’s name in it? His replacement, whether it’s Felipe Lopez or Anderson Machado, will be under the microscope all season. The addition of 3B Joe Randa and the resigning of 1B Sean Casey make the corner infield spots solid, if not steady. The Reds outfield of Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena, when healthy, is still one of the best outfields in baseball.
PTW OF Ken Griffey, Jr. – Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Reds season is going to hinge on the health of Junior. If Junior continues to be the shell of himself that he has been since coming to Cincinnati (only played in 206 games since 2002), then the Reds will only tread water. But if Junior regains any or some of his past MVP potential, the Reds might be able to move up and stay in the hunt in the Central.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2004 Record…72-89 (32.5 games back)
If the Pirates are going to contend at all in 2005, not only must the baseball Gods look down favorably on them, but also they’ll have to catch nearly every break they can get. The Pirates are young and getting better, but it’s hard to imagine them making much of a splash in the pennant hunt.
PITCHING Lefty Oliver Perez emerged as the ace of the staff in ’04, going 12- 10 with a tiny 2.98 ERA. But after Oliver, the Pirates have a bunch of nice arms, but nothing spectacular. Kip Wells, Josh Fogg and Mark Redman give the Pirates some veteran presence, while John Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong are the young pitchers will bigger upside. A couple of the aforementioned names will get added to an already solid bullpen, one that still features 18-year vet Jose Mesa as the closer.
LINEUP Pittsburgh’s lineup doesn’t have the big name superstar, so they have to play small-ball and manufacture runs in 2005.The Pirates traded for OF Matt Lawton to hit leadoff, and he along with ’04 Rookie of the Year winner Jason Bay, Craig Wilson and Tike Redman gives the Pirates a solid outfield. The ageless Benito Santiago becomes the everyday catcher now that Jason Kendall is gone. Most importantly though, the Pirates have to find a 2B to team up with SS Jack Wilson (competition between Bobby Hill, Freddy Sanchez and Jose Castillo) and a 3B to drive in runs (between Ty Wigginton and Rob Mackowiak).
PTW 3B Ty Wigginton – Wigginton was acquired from the Mets late in ’04, and should be the front-runner to gain the third base job this season. But he’s going to have to continue to improve if the Pirates have any chance, since he only had 15 HRs and 66 RBIs in 494 at bats in ’04. Wigginton is going to have to double those numbers and be the run-producing third-sacker the Pirates desperately need in the infield.
Milwaukee Brewers 2004 Record…67-94 (37.5 games back)
Anybody who is on this site knows what happened to the Brewers in ’04. An offensive collapse in the second half of the season crushed the Brewers and turned a good start into just another typical Brewers season. Optimism is high for 2005, but realistically, an easier goal of just a .500 record should be what the Brewers shoot for in ’05.
PITCHING Ace Ben Sheets and No. 2 lefty Doug Davis were both outstanding in ’04, but lack of run support killed them both. Victor Santos put in half of a season before tiring out, and after that injuries and inexperience took over. While Sheets and Davis are sure to be 1-2 again this season, the remaining three spots in the rotation are up for grabs with just about anyone with a live arm competing for them. The Brewers will also have to reload in their bullpen, with unknowns Derrick Turnbow, Justin Lehr and Jose Capellan joining youngsters Mike Adams and Jeff Bennett.
LINEUP The Brewers added a huge bat in the middle of the order when the traded for slugger Carlos Lee. His right-handed bat will sit real nice between lefties Lyle Overbay and Geoff Jenkins, and hopefully he will take pressure off of both Lyle and Geoff so they don’t feel like they have to swing at everything. A healthy Junior Spivey should make OF Brady Clark’s jump into the leadoff role easier. While no one really knows who is going to be on the left side of the infield yet, rookie SS J.J Hardy and bopper 3B Russell Branyan look to be the leaders as of now.
PTW 3B Russell Branyan -- Branyan has always been touted as having huge power potential, but because he also strikes out a ton, he’s never been given an everyday job in the majors. After hitting 11 HRs in just 158 ABs for the Brewers in ’04, the team brain trust is intrigued by Branyan and may give him his first chance as the starter at third. If that happens, Branyan could hit 30-plus homeruns. But he’ll also probably strikeout 200 times too.