Overbay Traded to Toronto!
NL East Preview
2005 Season Preview
Eric Sacharski
Atlanta Braves 2004 Record…96-66 Lost to Houston in Division Series 3-2
Every season people predict the fall of the Braves title run in the NL East, and each season the Braves somehow outplay the field and win the title. Last year’s team won 96 games and went 51-25 in head-to-head games verses the rest of the NL East. They even took the Astros to a fifth game in the first round of the NL playoffs.
They continue to be one of the best run organizations in baseball, so to the surprise of no one, GM John Schuerlholz and the Braves made some major changes for the 2005 team.
PITCHING With a starting rotation featuring the return of John Smoltz and the NL debut of Tim Hudson, the top two spots are solid. Mike Hampton, a pitcher who went 9-1 in his last 10 starts of ’04, gives the Braves a sleeper in the No. 3 spot. With the acquisition of Gabe White as a situational-lefty, and closer Dan Kolb from Milwaukee , the Braves bullpen should still be able to closeout wins in the late innings despite losing Smoltz.
LINEUP Atlanta didn’t bat an eyelash at J.D. Drew as he went to LA as a free agent, but they also lost Eli Marrero (via trade to KC) and Charles Thomas (via trade to Oak.), making the Braves outfield the biggest question mark going into 2005. The Braves are taking a “calculated” risk by trying to fill the void with Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan. Yeah, the same Mondesi that took his ball and went home on Pittsburgh last season; and the same Jordan who has played only 66 and 61 games the past two seasons in LA and Texas, respectively.
With Chipper Jones back at third (unless young 3B prospect Andy Marte proves he is ready), the infield of Jones, SS Rafael Furcal, 2B Marcus Giles and 1B Adam LaRoche is solid both at the plate and defensively. Catcher Johnny Estrada proved to be a solid backstop in ’04 and he gives the Braves offensive production ( .314 – 9hr – 76rbi) from a position most teams cannot match.
PLAYER TO WATCH (PTW) 1B Adam LaRoche -- The left-handed hitting LaRoche put up decent numbers in his rookie season in ’04 (.278 ave.-.333 obp – 13hr – 45rbi in just 324 ab’s) playing strictly against right-handed pitchers (only 20 AB vs. lefty’s). If the Braves start giving him more lefty-vs-lefty at bats and less to golden-oldie Julio Franco (which is likely), LaRoche could surprise some people.
Philadelphia Phillies 2004 Record…86-76 (10 games back)
Now that the Phillies have shown manager Larry Bowa the door, what or who will the notoriously hate-filled Philly fans have to blame for the 2005 version? New manager Charlie Manuel isn’t the abrasive personality that Bowa was, but that won’t matter to most Phillie fans. They made some changes for 2005, but whether they turn out to be enough to get past the Braves is debatable.
PITCHING Philly allowed both Kevin Millwood (to Cleveland) and Eric Milton (to Cincinnati) to walk away from the team via free agency, and only brought Jon Lieber into the fold in their place. That makes the Phillies rotation of Lieber, Cory Lidle (12 wins in 34 starts), Randy Wolf (5 wins in 23 starts, Brett Myers (11 wins in 31 starts) and prospect Gavin Floyd…er, let’s just say not very impressive. The Phillies bullpen with Billy Wagner at closer and Tim Worrell, Terry Adams and Rheal Cormier setting Wagner up, looks to be real strong. But how many leads will they get handed to them with those starters is a huge question mark.
LINEUP The Phillies lineup won’t look much different than in ’04, with the lone addition of CF Kenny Lofton as the main addition in the outfield around Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. This moves Marlon Byrd to the 4th outfield spot, which is nice depth. The Phillies infield is solid all the way around (Jim Thome, Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, David Bell), but they will need a big season from Bell at 3B if they are going to push the Braves and Marlins in 2005.
PTW SS Jimmy Rollins -- Rollins made great improvement in many categories from the 2003 season to 2004. He scored more runs (85 to 119), had more hits (165 to 190), more HRs (8 to 14), more RBIs (62 to 73) and most importantly, less K’s (113 to 73). Rollins will benefit from the addition of Lofton in the leadoff role, so look for his numbers to get better again this season.
Florida Marlins 2004 Record…83-79 (13 games back)
The Florida Marlins, on paper, look like they might have the best team in the NL East in 2005. The Marlins addressed their needs in the offseason by acquiring 1B Carlos Delgado for the lineup and lefty Al Leiter for the rotation. Those moves, added to an already solid nucleus of a team, could move the Marlins up the standings.
PITCHING Adding the savvy veteran Leiter into the rotation may be exactly what the young arms of Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis need. The Marlins have to keep Beckett and Burnett on the mound and off the DL, a problem that is obviously the key to the Marlins season. The bullpen of Antonio Alfonseca, Todd Jones and Guillermo Mota should be strong enough, not a guarantee by any means, by good enough to hold most games.
LINEUP What’s not to like about the Marlins lineup? They’ve got everything: speed to play small-ball (Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo), power to drive in runs (Delgado, Miquel Cabrera, Mike Lowell), veteran leadership (Paul Lo Duca, Jeff Conine), and even solid depth (Damion Easley, Juan Encarnacion). The Marlins will be able to play any style on offense, something that becomes key during pennent runs and playoffs.
PTW C Paul Lo Duca -- Lo Duca continues to be one of the best offensive catchers in the game, but the Marlins will need him to groom a young pitching staff as the catcher just as much as his bat. He won’t put up power numbers offensively like last year (13hr – 80rbi), playing at Pro Player Stadium, but he may be the glue that keeps this team clicking.
New York Mets 2004 Record…71-91 (25 games back)
The Mets gave everyone lots to talk about by going out and dumping a boatload of millions into the bank accounts of Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Not many people are convinced that it’s good for the baseball team, but at least it will keep them on the back pages of the New York tabloids.
PITCHING The Mets could turn out to have top-of-the-line No.1 and 2 starters, with Pedro and Tom Glavine, but after that it gets shaky. Kris Benson, Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano are all recognized names to fill out the rotation, but all three are .500 pitchers at best in their careers. Unfortunately, the Mets bullpen is so weak, the starters are all going to pitch extra innings. Braden Looper is the closer (29 last season), but the Mets need both Felix Heredia (ugly 6.28 ERA / 44 hits in 38.2 inn.) and Mike DeJean (70 hits in 61 inn.) to rebound from their really bad ’04 campaigns.
LINEUP The addition of Beltran is a nice addition, but the Mets will need a young infield to mature quickly for their offense to be good enough to win the East. 3B David Wright looks like a solid rookie, but SS Kaz Matsui and 2B Jose Reyes still are unproven. It was because Matsui and Reyes were so bad in ’04, the Mets added 2B Miquel Cairo and 1B Doug Mientkiewicz for veteran insurance. If Mike Piazza’s knees can take catching full-time again, and if RF Cliff Floyd stays healthy the lineup should have enough pop.
PTW P Victor Zambrano – Victor goes from the ace of the Tampa Bay staff in ’04, to perhaps the No.4/5 starter for the Mets this season…talk about a sleeper. Keep in mind, he did win 2-of-3 starts for the Mets after they acquired him last year (with 3.86 ERA); and he is still a quality pitcher (37-27 career record). Zambrano might thrive in this under-the-radar role with the Mets.
Washington Nationals 2004 Record…67-95 (as Montreal Expos) (29 games back)
The story of the Nationals is sure to be covered over and over (if it hasn’t been already) this season, which will hopefully die down after their first go-around throughout the NL. But the Expos/ Nationals also spent some money and brought in some players to try and improve the product on the field.
PITCHING If Tony Armas is healthy and ready to rebound to prior form, the Nationals rotation could be strong at the top with Armas, Livan Hernandez and Esteban Loaiza as No. 1 through 3. The Nationals are hoping the addition of Antonio Osuna solidifies the bullpen, a bullpen that will have Chad Cordero (14saves – 83 K’s in 82.2 inn.) closing them out.
LINEUP The Nationals revamped the left side of their infield by bringing in SS Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla via free agency. They also traded for Jose Guillen and Alex Escobar to add outfield depth to Brad Wilkerson and Endy Chavez. All of the moves make the Nationals lineup almost as versatile as the Marlins, with speed (Chavez, Guzman), solid hitting (Jose Vidro, Wilkerson) and power to play the long-ball (Guillen, Nick Johnson, Castilla).
PTW 1B Nick Johnson -- Johnson has been injury-prone the past few seasons, and has yet to live up to the power expectations he inspired as a young Yankee. With Guillen and Castilla taking away a lot of the homerun pressure off of him this season, Johnson could thrive and put up career-best numbers, since they are just 15 HR’s and 58 RBIs.